66对子遭遇小筹码玩家全压,怎么玩?

66对子遭遇小筹码玩家全压,怎么玩?
牌局背景及过程
这手牌来自一场无限德州扑克锦标赛。当时盲注200/400,前注50。桌上玩家筹码量如图。翻前,前面玩家都弃牌,你在劫位(hijack)用6♠ 6♥率先加注到2.5BB,CO玩家弃牌,然后按钮玩家(约15BB)再加注到全压。两个盲注玩家都弃牌,轮到你行动。你会如何行动?
职业牌手的解析
每次你的对手全压,你都应该确定你的底池赔率。在这个例子中,底池有大约8000筹码,你需要花费额外4950筹码去跟注,这给了你8000 : 4950(约1.6 : 1)的底池赔率。
鉴于这个赔率,你需要在这手牌至少有38%的胜率才能跟注(1.6 : 1约等于62 : 38)。另一种计算跟注所需胜率的方法是将跟注额除以跟注后的底池总额(4950 / 12950 = 0.38 = 38%)。
拿着6♠ 6♥,我们很可能对抗大多数对手的范围都有超过38%的胜率。我们对抗由77+、AJs+、KQs、AJo+、KQo组成的范围恰好有超过38%的胜率。
因此我们可以将这个底牌范围作为评估我们盈利能力的标准。如果对手拿着这个范围或者比这更宽的范围,我们应该跟注。如果对手有一个比这个范围更窄的范围,我们应该弃牌。
在只剩15BB筹码的场合,许多对手会用比这个标杆范围宽很多的范围全压,因此我们应该将跟注作为我们的标准玩法。为了使我们翻前放弃这手牌,我们需要有特定对手只用少数更强牌全压的信息。
但是,一般而言,跟注这个翻前全压是最好的玩法。
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