手牌KK面对河牌圈的下注,跟还是扔?

手牌KK面对河牌圈的下注,跟还是扔?
1
牌局背景无限德州扑克常规局,盲注级别25/50。桌上玩家筹码量如下图:翻前,你在UTG+1位置用K♠K♣率先加注到150。劫位玩家跟注,其他人弃牌。底池现在有375。翻牌是J♣J♦Q♠,你下注200,对手跟注。转牌是2♥,你往775的底池下注400,对手仍然跟注。河牌是Q♣,你过牌,对手下注约3/4底池大小,你会如何行动?2职业牌手的解答为了在河牌圈跟注1150赢得一个3875的底池,我们必须认为自己的牌至少有38%(1150/3875)的胜率。因为对手不太可能用比我们糟糕的牌做价值下注,我们必须相信对手的范围由至少30%的诈唬牌组成才能证明跟注是合理的。对手可能用T9s(s代表suited,指同样花色;T代表10)、KTs和99、88这样小对子诈唬。然而,大多数小于JJ的对子会对转牌圈下注弃牌,而且我们阻断了两种KTs组合。因此T9s成了对手仅有的常见诈唬牌。KTs和T9s总共只有6种组合。对手也在可能用任何Qx、Jx做价值下注,这些牌在其范围中约有50种组合。所有这些组合都能够打败我们,而且对手往往用这种方式游戏。
总之,对手底牌范围中的诈唬牌远低于30%。因此对手范围中的诈唬牌比例太少,使得跟注是无利可图的。综上所述,弃牌是最好的玩法。
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