同花连张在4人底池击中强听牌,怎么打?

同花连张在4人底池击中强听牌,怎么打?
1 牌局背景
无限德州扑克锦标赛,盲注级别50/100,玩家筹码量如下图:
翻前:UTG(under the gun,枪口位)+1玩家率先加注到300,MP2(middle position,中间位置)玩家跟注,你在CO(cut off,关位)位置用9♥8♥跟注。按钮位和小盲位弃牌,大盲位跟注。
翻牌:3♣J♥Q♥。大盲位下注800,UTG+1和MP2跟注,现在到你行动。
2 职业牌手的建议
当我们拿着听牌面对下注时,要做的第一步就是计算底池赔率。在这个牌例中,底池已经有3650筹码,如果跟注需要花800筹码,这样到转牌时底池将有4450筹码,我们如果有至少18%(800/4450)的胜率,跟注就是盈利的。
我们有一个同花听牌和卡顺听牌,12张补牌(outs),有大概24%的概率在转牌圈完成听牌。即使我们不把3♥视作补牌(因为再发个3牌面会有公对),我们仍然有22%的概率在转牌圈完成听牌,这概率高于盈亏平衡所需要的18%胜率,所以跟注就是有利可图的,因而我们排除弃牌这个选择。
那加注会不会更好呢?
加注的一个主要好处,是迫使对手弃牌,也就是得到弃牌赢率。但因为这是一个4人底池,让所有对手弃牌的可能性比只有一两个对手的时候低很多。加注往往只会导致我们在落后时投入更多筹码到底池。
因为加注让所有对手弃牌的可能性非常小,我们应该接受这个有利可图的底池赔率,用听牌跟注。
所以,跟注是最好的玩法。
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