德扑圈里微弱的优势往往决定了胜败

微小优势聚集起来,决定长期的输赢,习惯亦是如此

德扑游戏是通过在边缘情况下,比对少犯错误从而长期获得盈利的游戏。

长期看,你并不能因为那些你抓到AA(翻牌前最大牌),对手抓到了KK(第二大),然后在翻牌前打光筹码的牌局中赢钱(这时AA的胜率约为80%),因为这种AA对上KK的牌局,你和对手遇到的频率长期都是一样的。

(多讲一点:假如你拿到KK,识别出对手一定是AA,你机敏的弃掉了KK,从而打破了这种AA对KK翻牌前一定打光筹码的“平衡”,这时,你在AA对KK的牌局中才有真正的盈利,你赢了“策略钱”。但这种情况是极端的,职业牌手也很难在翻牌前弃掉KK)

真正影响输赢的,可能是那些大量被你忽略的小底池,小输赢。

这些真人德扑圈牌局中,一局可能只损失两三个盲注(最小下注),比如你经常喜欢用55、66这种小对子,溜入然后跟注一个对手的加注,如果在翻牌的三张牌里不中三条(再击中一张5或6,牌型较大通常能赢到最后),就弃牌给对手的持续下注,这就是一个典型的Leak(漏洞)。长期如此,你就会因为这个“习惯”而损失大量资金。

习惯,就像那些微小的优势或者劣势,时间久了,一定会显现出对你人生的或好或坏的影响。

坏习惯就像打牌中的Leak(漏洞),暗中影响着我们的命运。

爱抽烟的人,以后得肺癌的几率就比常人高。

经常酒后驾车,次数多了一定会出事。

聚会喜欢迟到,正式场合时就可能会耽误重要的事情。

容易丢三落四,重要会议就可能犯下低级的错误。

习惯说谎话,时间久了朋友都会远离而去。

。。。。

这些“-EV”的习惯,可能做一次、两次都无伤大碍,99%的时候都不会发生什么。

但是,99%相乘10次=90.4%,相乘50次=60.5%,等发生100次以后,一次都不出事的概率只有:36.6%

而那一次,可能就会有严重的后果。

习惯之链的力量很弱,因而往往感觉不到,但一旦感觉到了,他已经牢不可摧。—塞缪尔·约翰逊

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