德州扑克名词概念解释:Allin EV 与 G bucks
德州扑克名词概念解释:Allin EV 与 G bucks
EV(Expect Value)期望值:由于打牌时我们常会面临很多variance,这时候就利用 EV来衡量在数学上我们实际的状况。举例来说,在preflop拿AA 打完非常开心,因为不会有任何的牌比AA还强,如果你的对手拿 KK你在allin当下对上KK 的equity有82%,假设两边筹码都是 $100,这时候 pot=$200,而考虑上你的equity后,200*82%=164 (这个是你在数学上拿走pot中的钱)。
但是天不从人愿,偏偏就是在 river时弹张K出来,这时候你输了$100但实际上你应该是要赢$64,在HM显示就会显示你输了$100而$EV Diff 就会显示+164。
如果这把牌是你赢了,你赢了$100但实际上你只能赢$64,在HM显示就会显示你赢了 $100而$EV Diff 就会显示-36。所以很多人会用 EV来衡量运气好不好,但我觉得,在打的手数还不够多时,单纯用 EV来衡量是有失公允的。
这时有人提出个新的观点,这人就是Phil Galfond,我最崇敬的poker pro,不仅是他牌打得非常好,还有他乐于跟人分享知识也回答很多玩家的问题。
Phil Galfond提出了G-Bucks这个名词,在网络上也可以找到相关的文章,我就简单解释一下观念就好。
Galfond导入的opponent range 的概念,假设你拿KK在preflop 跟对手打完,对手开了 AA给你看,这时你的equity只有18%,所以 EV会呈现出你打差这手牌,因为你拿18% equity的牌跟人all-in。
但你拿KK时如果确信对手拿AA,你会去跟他拚allin吗?如果你的答案是会,麻烦跟我联系,我会不断提供你allin的机会。
那为什么你会愿意拿KK跟对手在preflop 打完?因为你认为对手的range不会只有AA,我随便给对手假定一个range,{QQ+,AK,JJ*2},这时我们的KK对上这个range 约有60%的 equity,所以我们愿意跟对手all-in。
假设我们估算的range是正确的,那$200的pot我们期望是可以拿走$120,而非KK对上AA 只能拿走 $36。
这个一样也可以套用在postflop,即使是牌都已经开到 river,我们call对手的river bet一样可以估算对手的range来看我们期望可以拿走多少。
因此EV计算上的缺失,就是没有考虑到对手的range,当你运气很差被set over set时,EV并没有把这点计算进去,同样的当你set over set别人时,这点也是你运气好所造成的,所以这时你打得实际上没有EV上所显示的那么好。
讲了那么多,EV的限制似乎让这个指标变得不好,但我认为长久下来 (可能是打了数十万手),你跟对手互相碰到cooler的状况是差不多的,EV在长期还是有相当的参考价值。
所以当赢钱时,最好还是静下心来好好看这个session打过的牌,是不是单纯的running good,不断的检讨自己,才有持续进步的空间。
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