德州扑克之资金风险
德州扑克之资金风险
上一期，我们给大家介绍了德州扑克四大风险的第一个风险，或许有的朋友已经忘了这四大风险都是哪四个。我们首先来回顾这四个风险分别是什么，并给大家介绍第二大风险的相关内容。
1、自然风险2、资金风险3、策略性风险4、主观性风险资金风险有限资金参与赌博，都有输光的风险。下面分几种情况介绍：(1)两个人单挑，我们技术上没有优势，对手资金无限，我们和对手无限制地赌下去，那么我们输光的概率为：100%。(2)两个人单挑，水平一样，就像投硬币一样赌。甲有资金A，乙有资金B，两个人无限制地赌下去，直到一方输光为止。那么:甲输光的概率为：B/(A+B)乙输光的概率为：A/(A+B)(3)两个人单挑，我们有技术优势，胜率为P(P>0.5)，对手胜率为Q=1-P。甲有资金A(够下注A次)，乙资金无限，两个人无限制地赌下去，直到甲输光为止。那么:甲输光的概率为：(Q/P)^A(4)依据历史数据计算破产风险。R=exp(-2WB/S^2)其中：R为破产概率；W为小时平均赢率；B为资金；S为小时平均赢率标准差。这是目前公认的计算方法。解决资金风险理论上有三种途径。一是增强盈利能力，二是增加资金，三是减小小时平均盈利标准差。一般来说盈利能力在短时间内不会有太大进步。在绝对资金不增加的前提下增加B，唯一的办法就是降级。小时盈利标准差反映了赌博过程的波动程度，这一点牌手很难控制，也很难改变。如果牌手为了降低破产风险而刻意为减小波动而采取措施，往往是以牺牲盈利能力为代价的，W和S同时减小，能不能达到减小R的目的，不能乐观。综上所述，降低破产风险唯一正确的方法就是降级。
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