一分钟教你学会算出德州扑克抽牌的概率

“四二法则”是一种估算概率的方法,让你能快速计算你想要的牌出现的概率。

比如:桌子上的牌是A-6-7-Q,而你的手牌是8-9。你想要再来一张5或者10来凑成顺子,但你只剩最后一轮机会。

严格来计算德扑概率应该这样:

一副牌52张,去掉翻牌3张,转牌1张,手牌2张,剩下52-3-2-1=46张;

你想要的牌是4张5和4张10,共4+4=8张。

那么此时,你在河牌中顺子的概率为:8/46=0.1739,即17%。

你可能觉得这样计算会比较麻烦,于是就有了四二法则,即:你想要的牌有4+4=8张,

只剩最后一轮机会,所以让8*2=16,即你有约16%的机会中顺子,与上述17%基本近似。

这是四二法则中的“二”。

当然,如果你还有两轮机会的话,即河牌圈与转牌圈,情况是这样的。

比如桌子上翻牌为A-6-7,你的手牌依旧是8,9。

不一样的是,你有两轮机会来等5或者10,共8张想要的牌

那么两轮内你中顺子的概率为:

1-(47-8)/47*(46-8)/46=0.3145,即约为31%。

那么利用四二法则,8*4=32,即你约有32%的机会中顺子,是不是跟理论值也很接近。

这就是四二法则中的“四”。

总之就是,先想好自己想要的牌的张数,然后,还有两轮机会就乘4,还有一轮机会就乘2,得到的就是你想要的牌接下来会出现的概率。接着,根据真人德扑圈的游戏玩家以及战况来决定接下来该怎么办。利用好四二法则,可以帮你快速估算概率。

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