德扑“听牌”的基本打法和成牌概率上篇
今天要解答的是粉丝“为你唱首歌”关于听牌打法的疑问。“听牌”是德扑中让人欢喜让人忧的情况，看上去充满希望，结局却不一定每次都能美梦成真。看完本文，相信大家以后再遇到听牌就知道该怎么处理了。“听牌”（Draw，北美华裔牌手喜欢用谐音称之为“兆”牌），是指玩家的底牌与公共牌组合出差1张成牌的牌型，大多时候是指“听顺”、“听花”。
由于德扑游戏中，大多数玩家喜欢选择AA、KK、AK这类比较强的底牌来参与游戏，翻牌后大多成为“123” （指包括超对、顶对的1对、所有2对和3条牌型）。有些玩家开始选择包括“ATs、98s”（s代表同一花色）这类的底牌入局，希望通过命中同花、顺子来击败“123”，但是直接在翻牌成为同花、顺子的机会很小，反而经常成为听牌。大多时候“123”的对手都会做出加注，这时候如何处理好听牌，就成了非常关键的技术了。
1 关于“听牌”玩家必须要先有以下几个观念：
- “听牌”本身还不是成牌，应该优先考虑以最低代价看牌；
- “听牌”命中的概率其实不如大家想象中那么高；
- “听牌”需要精确的期望值计算；
- “听牌”目标是成为坚果，如果听的只是小顺、小花，不但听牌的价值会降低，也可能遭遇更大的顺子同花。 特别强调：本文仅适用于国内德扑网游的标准局（俗称：散场局、Cash），有些内容或许并不适合现场或线上。
2 关于“听牌”的统计数据
1. 翻牌后成为听牌的机会
（注：s代表同一花色，o代表不同花色）
2. 翻牌听牌在转牌成牌的概率
3. 常见的翻牌听牌
一旦成为听牌的时候，第一优先考虑的是对手，然后是大小、位置、筹码量，根据来做出决策。
德州“听牌”的基本打法和成牌概率中篇：https://www.moshike.com/a/562.html
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